Credit: Viasat

LONDON — Satellite broadband hardware and service provider Viasat Inc. asked investors to picture a world where Viasat’s current 29% share of the in-flight connectivity market in U.S. narrow body aircraft is extended worldwide while the global aircraft fleet doubles and passenger traffic increases by 2.3x.

And the percent of IFC-enabled aircraft rises considerably from today’s 30%.

“It’s a very big addressable market,” Viasat Chief Executive Mark D. Dankberg said. “IFC alone can be a multibillion-dollar annual business during the life of Viasat 3,” the company’s three-satellite 1-Tbps-per-satellite program scheduled to launch in 2021 and 2022 for global coverage. “At 30% globally, 2028 revenue would be $2 billion to $4 billion annually.”

Viasat said its U.S. narrow body market share was 21% a year ago and just 10% in September 2016, making it the only one of the four established IFC providers to have increased market share in the past three years.

Viasat’s comparison is with Gogo, still the market leader but now with less than 50% of the installed base; Global Eagle Entertainment (GEE) and Panasonic Avionics.

Including 85 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, which have been grounded as regulators evaluate its safety, Viasat has 1,438 aircraft fitted with its IFC system, with another 700 under contract. That’s a 51% increase from a year ago.

Credit: Viasat

In addition to its own satellites, the company uses capacity provided by partners in Europe and the Asia-Pacific in advance of the Viasat-3 arrival.

IFC is inside Viasat’s Satellite Services division, which includes fixed consumer broadband and the company’s expanding business providing Wi-Fi hotspots in emerging markets.

Viasat said that as of Sept. 30, its U.S. consumer broadband business counted 587,000 subscribers, a figure that hasn’t grown much in the past couple of years but is expected to return to growth when the first Viasat 3 satellite, to be stationed over the Americas, arrives in 2021.

But while the subscriber count has languished, Viasat has been increasing its per-subscriber yield. As of Sept. 30, monthly subscriber revenue was $86.94, up 17% from a year ago.

In a Nov. 7 investor call, Dankberg said Viasat has been able to transfer some Viasat-2 capacity from lower-demand regions to regions where it is more likely to find the high-dollar subscriber that Viasat prefers.

Although some bandwidth is lost in the process, he said the trade is favorable given the appetite subscribers in high-demand areas for the premium service.

Viasat has not disclosed what orbital slots it will use for the Viasat 3 satellites over Europe, the Middle East and Africa; and the Asia-Pacific.

Industry officials said Viasat has been leasing a satellite from Avanti Communications of London to occupy different orbital positions for the regulatory minimum period before moving to another position to perform the same function.

But beyond the company’s current partnerships with Telebras of Brazil, NBN in Australia and China Satcom, Viasat is going it alone for Viasat 3 in these new regions. The company’s consumer and IFC broadband partnership with fleet operator Eutelsat is winding down. Eutelsat ordered its own high-throughput satellite instead of sharing a Viasat 3.

“We are in a temporarily stable situation,” Dankberg said of the Eutelsat relationship. “We have an accommodation with them. They use our network, we use their satellite. It’s probably not the long-term solution. We are working with them on what the end state will be.”

More generally, he said the plan for the global Viasat 3 network is “to bring the satellites to market ourselves,” with regional partnerships.

Viasat did not discuss any implications for its IFC business with China Satcom of the loss of the Chinasat 18 satellite earlier this year: